Social Security is not projected to disappear, but scheduled payments will be smaller.
The Big Story
More people are collecting Social Security, and fewer workers are paying into it than in the past.
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the combined Social Security trust funds can pay full scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034. After that, incoming money would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits.
The Two Spins
From the Left
- Views Social Security as a promise workers pay into throughout their careers so benefits should continue as scheduled.
- Support raising or removing the $184,500 cap so higher earners pay Social Security taxes on more of their income.
From the Right
- Views Social Security as an important program but it needs changes to remain affordable for future generations.
- Support adjusting future benefits or eligibility rather than asking workers to pay more into the system.
What This Means for Us
Social Security benefit changes are projected to affect nearly 1 out of every 5 people in the country. Thats about 52.6 million retired workers, 7.1 million disabled workers, 5.8 million widows and widowers, and roughly 3.6 million children receiving benefits through a retired, disabled, or deceased parent.
How They Make Money
ADP
- ADP helps businesses calculate, withhold, and submit Social Security payroll taxes. Workers and employers each contribute 6.2% of wages, making payroll taxes the largest funding source for Social Security.
- ADP serves more than 1.1 million clients and processes payroll for millions of workers, helping employers manage tax filings, benefits, and compliance requirements.
Takeaway
Social Security is mostly funded by today’s workers paying for today’s beneficiaries.
The Number That Stuck With Me
$7,500
The Social Security earnings cap rose by $7,500 in 2026, increasing from $176,100 to $184,500. Earnings above that amount are not subject to Social Security payroll taxes.